Week 9 sec picks and predictions

By: Grant Poarch

       

Last week was yet another profitable week. The only game I missed on the money line was the Mississippi State @ Arkansas where a total of just 10 points were scored in the game. On the spreads, I went 3-2. That makes money, but we are looking to make more. With a 4-1 record on the spread last week and a 3-2 record on the money line, I move to 57-15 on the money line and 28-31 on the spread for the season. You know what they say, knowing what to fade is just as important as knowing what to tail. Take that how you will in evaluating my record. With that said, tail me at your benefit and fade me at your expense. The odds listed are provided by DraftKings.

South Carolina @ Texas A&M (-17, O/U 53.5), 12:00PM EST, ESPN

            I know South Carolina has struggled, but are they really this bad? A 17 point difference on the spread is wild to me. I’m not sure this much faith in Texas A&M for a SEC game is justified. While I do think they will come out with the win, this spread is highly questionable. 11AM local kickoffs usually result in a hungover student section and a crowd that is nowhere as lit as a night game. That will play a factor in this game.

            South Carolina, even though they are 2-5, is much better than their record indicates. They were competitive with Georgia and Florida. If someone told me the Gamecocks would be 2-5 at this point, I would have laughed in disbelief.

            The real reason why I don’t think Texas A&M will cover is Max Johnson. This guy is massively overrated, and you cannot count on him in the clutch. If you are Texas A&M, I don’t know that there will be many clutch situations. However, Johnson will be the reason the Aggies don’t blowout the Gamecocks like the spread expects.

Prediction: Texas A&M wins, South Carolina covers +17

#1 Georgia (-14) vs. Florida, O/U 49.5, 3:30PM EST, CBS (Game is in Jacksonville, FL)

            This game is going to be the beginning of a rough stretch for Florida. After this game, which they will definitely lose, they still have to play LSU, Missouri, and Florida State. I wish I could say that I feel bad for them but I don’t in the slightest.

            In this one, Georgia clears by a mile. After a bye week for Georgia, they will be fully ready to win this rivalry game. The reason for Florida’s success, QB Graham Mertz, won’t be prevalent in this game. Mertz is more than due to have a bad game. I’m tired of hearing him as a “good quarterback”. He is not that in any way. While I dislike UGA in a lot of ways, I hope they pummel Florida.

            Recently, when Georgia has had someone in their way of either the SEC Championship or College Football Playoff, they have proved why they are the crème of the crop in college football. Even without Brock Bowers, they will do that again.

Prediction: Georgia wins, Georgia covers -14

Mississippi State @ Auburn (-6.5, O/U 43.5), 3:30PM EST, SECN

            If Arkansas had an offensive pulse, Mississippi State would be 0-4 in conference play. There is no question that the Bulldog offense is a problem. That won’t fix itself when you go into an environment like Auburn. Yes, they are only 3-4 this year. Ask Texas A&M what a home environment with a bad Auburn team is like. Their fans are great and they will show up in numbers for this one.

            Where Mississippi State has weak wins Auburn has quality losses. Clearly a weak win is better than a quality loss. However, the strength of record cannot be understated. To me, Auburn seems further ahead in their rebuild. They have more resources and better coaching which will show up in a big way on Saturday.

Prediction: Auburn wins, Auburn covers -6.5

#21 Tennessee (-4) @ Kentucky, O/U 51.5, 7:00PM EST, ESPN

            After a disappointing loss against Alabama, which direction do the Vols go? Do they crumble after expectations of being in the SEC and playoff race have faded? Do they become resilient instead?

            I’m sure there is disappointment within the program but there will be motivation to beat Kentucky. Sure, the rivalry in and of itself is motivation enough. Moreover, the physical challenge that Kentucky presents will wake up the Vols even more.

            When I think about the winner of this game, I think about how Tennessee played in the first half a week ago. They were more than up to the challenge of playing Alabama physically not including a poor second half. I see Tennessee doing the same thing to Kentucky and keeping the fight to the Wildcats since they are nowhere near as deep as Alabama.

Prediction: Tennessee wins, Tennessee covers -4

Vanderbilt @ #12 Ole Miss (-24.5, O/U 63.5), 7:30PM EST, SECN

            The fact that Ole Miss gets to play Vanderbilt every year for their cross-divisional rivalry is wild to me. I know someone gets Vandy in that scenario, but Ole Miss is just lucky for that one.

            Plain and simple, Vanderbilt is no good at football. Ole Miss, on the other hand, is at worst mid at football. Mid clears terrible so I’m rocking with Ole Miss to win the game.

            This spread is absolutely massive but that’s what happens when you play Vanderbilt. Is Vanderbilt going to be able to stop Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart? That is extremely doubtful. The idea that the Commodores are going to be able to keep this within 30 is a joke. Gimme Ole Miss and the points.

Prediction: Ole Miss wins, Ole Miss covers -24.5